On Monday night, Boston College football opens the 2024 season in Tallahassee, Fla., against No. 10 Florida State. The Seminoles already dropped their first matchup to Georgia Tech, 24–21, in Dublin, Ireland, on Saturday, Aug. 24, becoming the first team in college football to lose a game this year.
Last season, Florida State narrowly escaped Chestnut Hill with a 31–29 victory. The name Thomas Castellanos will surely bring back bad memories for Seminole fans—the Eagles’ starting quarterback nearly ruined Florida State’s perfect regular season before it gained momentum.
Castellanos passed for over 300 yards with a touchdown pass and accumulated 95 yards rushing and a score on the ground. It was just his second time starting under center for BC, and his first in Alumni Stadium. The Eagles did, however, commit a costly amount of penalties—18 total—which new head coach Bill O’Brien is keeping in the back pocket for motivation.
As the season opener appears just around the corner, football beat writers Graham Dietz and Sourabh Gokarn give their predictions for the Eagles’ 2024 season.
Who is BC’s most important player(s)?
Graham: The connection between Castellanos and his top target, Lewis Bond, will feed families for those rooting for a college football team in the Boston area. It’s that elite, and they are BC’s most important players if the Eagles are going to feature another productive offense this season. During the offseason, O’Brien compared Bond to former Alabama wideout John Metchie III, who currently plays for the Houston Texans. He then went on to say Metchie was “one of the best players” he’s ever coached. Bond is an elusive route runner who stays low to the ground and seems to always find open space. He’s a reliable pass catcher. In preseason camp leading up to Week One, Bond successfully picked up numerous gains in the 10–15-yard range play after play during team drills. The Chicago, Ill., native and Kenwood Academy product should easily surpass his season totals in 2023—Bond registered 646 receiving yards and seven receiving touchdowns with a 12.4 average yards per catch—because he has three years under his belt and an offensive mastermind, O’Brien, to mentor him. Opposing defenses will focus heavily on Castellanos’ play-making ability, making Bond’s job less stressful. When all of the attention turns to Castellanos, Bond will silently expose the opponents’ secondary.
Sourabh: It’s tough to win games without being able to consistently pressure quarterbacks. A weak pass rush strains the secondary and lets opposing offenses enter a rhythm. Yet, that was the state of affairs for BC’s defense a season ago. The Eagles could only muster 13 sacks in 2023, good for second-to-last in the ACC. The man most responsible for any sort of turnaround in 2024 will be Donovan Ezeiruaku. Ezeiruaku broke out in 2022, recording a team-high 7.5 sacks and an All-ACC Second Team nod. 2023, however, was a different story. His junior season saw only two sacks, though he did leave his mark in the 2023 Fenway Bowl with a forced fumble and four tackles. BC returns a relatively experienced defensive line and Ezeiruaku will be expected to anchor. If the senior can return to form and develop into a true game-wrecker, he will change the tenor of the defense entirely.
Who will be BC’s biggest breakout player?
Graham: There hasn’t been a defensive tackle drafted out of BC’s program since the Green Bay Packers selected B.J. Raji with the ninth overall pick in 2009. The New England Patriots selected Ron Brace later in that Draft as well. This is not to say that Cam Horsley is certifiably going to be an NFL Draft pick. But he will be the Eagles’ primary breakout player, and is going to make a name for himself in the college football ranks. Hailing from Cinnaminson, N.J., Horsley is a unit with a 6-foot-4, 306-pound frame, and a stud in the trenches. He started all 13 games last season and notched 41 tackles, including three TFL’s (tackles for loss) and three PBU’s (pass breakups). The stats don’t necessarily jump off the page, but his grade as a pass rusher stands out. It’s no surprise that he was a pre-season All-ACC third-team selection—only three players on BC’s squad made a team. Remember, being a breakout player isn’t about being the best Eagle on the teams—it’s about showing what you’re made of, and Horsley is right there in the mix of ACC football players who could turn some heads this upcoming season.
Sourabh: Prior to his departure for the Green Bay Packers, former BC head coach Jeff Hafley managed to pull in a number of skilled receivers via the transfer portal. Fresh faces like Jayden McGowan, Jerand Bradley, and Kamari Morales make up a strong unit of pass catchers. But among those newcomers, Castellanos’ No. 2 target may wind up being redshirt freshman Reed Harris. Harris showed out in fall’s training camp, establishing a strong rapport with his starting quarterback both on and off the field. He’s a physically imposing presence in the red zone with enough speed to take the top off defenses, as well. Sporting Zay Flowers’ No. 4, Harris will rake in catches and new fans this season.
What is the biggest difference between this year and last year?
Graham: Not to state the obvious, but the biggest difference between this year and last year is BC’s new skipper. This entire offseason, preseason, or whatever you want to call the period of time between Hafley’s departure to the NFL and now, has been about what O’Brien brings to the table as a head coach in college football. A popular meme of the BC Twitter army is that “Bill O’Brien is building a monster in Chestnut Hill,” and there is actually some validity to that. The BC football brand is truly making a comeback, and the program is beginning to embrace the local community and attract local talent more than ever before. If this can become routine in the O’Brien era, despite the fact that the fate of college football is somewhat up in the air with conference realignment, the Eagles will flock to much greater heights and achieve what they did in the glory days of Doug Flutie and Matt Ryan. Maybe ascending to a top-four squad in FBS is not an attainable goal. But consistent 8–10 win seasons with bigger bowl games is the product fans are searching for in a coach like O’Brien, who possesses a wealth of knowledge as a former NFL head coach and offensive coordinator. O’Brien’s philosophy involves much more discipline than Hafley’s. If the players do something wrong, screw up an assignment, or actively show a lack of effort, they hear it from him immediately. He isn’t going to let it hide. O’Brien’s demeanor isn’t cold. It’s tough, and that’s what people from New England are.
Sourabh: BC will confront its biggest difference between this year and the last right away. Unlike a season ago, when the Eagles enjoyed the easiest schedule in the Power Five according to ESPN, BC will face no shortage of difficult opponents. Labor Day’s nationally televised primetime affair will just be the program’s first of many tests. Through the first three weeks, BC will take on a pair of top-15 teams on the road—something the Eagles never did a season ago. Tough road matchups are a theme of BC’s schedule, with away games at Virginia Tech and SMU also looming down the road. That being said, the early returns on Week One have shown that the ACC is as wide open as ever. Nearly every team on the Eagles’ schedule is beatable, giving the Eagles the chance to turn this major difference into a major asset to their résumé.
Final Takeaways
Graham: In terms of projections, my realistic win-loss total for the Eagles is 7–5, which would definitely be something to build on for O’Brien and co. Going down to Tallahassee at the beginning of September is just miserable in terms of heat. I say that’s a loss, not just because of the feverish humidity in the state that is commonly referred to as “the swamp,” but because BC will have to face a pissed-off squad that just traveled across the Atlantic Ocean just to drop its first matchup with the whole college football world watching.
I have the Eagles tallying their first win against Duquesne at Alumni Stadium on Sept. 7, then falling to 1–2 with a road game against Missouri, which boasts the top-ranked wide receiver in college football, Luther Burden III. BC will split against Michigan State and Western Kentucky, and split again with back-to-back games in the state for lovers—at Virginia and Virginia Tech with a bye week in between—going to 3–4.
The rest of the season will be more of a cakewalk. I have the Eagles topping both Louisville on homecoming weekend (Oct. 25) and Syracuse the week after to become 5–4. The Eagles were demolished by the Cardinals a year ago, but quarterback Jack Plummer doesn’t run the offense anymore. BC managed to eke out a win at the Carrier Dome last season and will do so again this season but at home.
For the final three games, going to SMU and then facing UNC and Pitt at home, I see O’Brien’s group taking two wins and dropping one, most likely the contest in Dallas. That brings the season total to 7–5, which would entail another bowl game for the program—hopefully, this time, not right down the street at Fenway Park.
The best-case scenario for BC is really if Castellanos manufactures significant stats with his arm—not just his feet—and the defense improves its ability to stop the run and stay healthy. Then I could see the season panning out as an 8–4 year and absolute jubilation on the Heights.
Worst-case scenario stems from the opposite—an injury that sidelines Castellanos for five-plus games and derails the entire project. Odds are that doesn’t happen, and everything stays relatively calm, but if it were to occur then BC could end up with a 4-8 record. Nevertheless, in the past four years, BC has never been equipped with more tools to succeed.
Sourabh: The Eagles’ 2024 best-case scenario revolves around Castellanos. If BC’s signal-caller can build upon the strengths he displayed last year, while consistently limiting mistakes in O’Brien’s new system, the Eagles have a shot to reshape their national perception. The first three games provide the perfect opportunity to do just that. Picking off one of the two ranked teams and starting the season 2–1 would bring an early-season energy back to Chestnut Hill not seen since 2021’s 4–0 start. Of course, after that 4–0 start was exactly when the 2021 season began to crumble, so it’s critical for this year’s Eagles to stay afloat amid the more manageable middle portion of the season. Despite Virginia Tech’s apparent vulnerability, winning in Blacksburg is always a tough ask, but a best-case scenario for BC could see the Eagles return to Alumni Stadium on Oct. 25 against Louisville with a 5–2 record. That game and Nov. 16’s matchup at SMU are potential stumbling blocks, but late-season home games against Syracuse and Pittsburgh would be enough to propel the Eagles to an 8–4 record and a solid bowl game.
If you’ve watched this team over the past few seasons, however, it isn’t hard to envision the worst-case scenario. Penalties and an overall lack of discipline—an issue that the Eagles apparently haven’t quite put to bed yet—could come back to haunt BC. Untimely injuries could emerge, sidelining critical players. Worst of all, the team could just struggle to buy into O’Brien’s new scheme and coaching philosophy. In this scenario, a three or four-win season would be a possibility, crippling the program’s momentum generated by O’Brien’s hiring.
While O’Brien’s arrival has provided ample reason for excitement, the team is still very much a work in progress. Programs aren’t turned around overnight. I can’t say any outcome this season—either good or bad—would truly surprise me. Disappointing home openers the past two seasons are still fresh in the minds of any BC fan, and it will be critical for the Eagles to come out firing on Sept. 7 at home against Duquesne to retain fan support. An eight-win season for the first time in 15 years should be a legitimate goal and a repeat 7–6 record should be the expectation. Luckily for BC fans, the design of this year’s schedule should quickly reveal the makeup of O’Brien’s squad.
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